Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 2.372912 2.779269 3.230029 3.766534 4.387122 5.081830 5.917927
2025-11-16 1.681041 2.207166 2.855448 3.710340 4.805243 6.157522 7.951257
2025-11-23 1.267786 1.832129 2.591230 3.680852 5.197793 7.226810 10.137262
2025-11-30 1.053567 1.651377 2.517130 3.851161 5.841393 8.683954 13.030661
2025-12-07 0.864219 1.455994 2.370865 3.871257 6.249026 9.843849 15.652559
2025-12-14 0.717000 1.289663 2.228756 3.857506 6.581549 10.912932 18.260881
2025-12-21 0.607644 1.160621 2.117646 3.864152 6.930971 12.033763 21.076137
2025-12-28 0.566796 1.141732 2.185211 4.176529 7.825313 14.140823 25.763068
2026-01-04 0.502208 1.065355 2.135652 4.268226 8.339065 15.656341 29.616188
2026-01-11 0.451096 1.004768 2.103638 4.383389 8.904331 17.320622 33.921457
2026-01-18 0.398191 0.930014 2.030768 4.405247 9.289916 18.693922 37.843047
2026-01-25 0.339488 0.831292 1.892558 4.271949 9.346899 19.444907 40.658411
2026-02-01 0.282121 0.725719 1.725345 4.057903 9.221881 19.851167 42.905300
2026-02-08 0.244007 0.657933 1.629969 3.985767 9.388105 20.868419 46.525961
2026-02-15 0.213917 0.603679 1.556106 3.949996 9.627885 22.066552 50.670025
2026-02-22 0.200299 0.589017 1.573571 4.130540 10.381062 24.451219 57.638342
2026-03-01 0.179846 0.551662 1.528521 4.151452 10.762588 26.058997 63.074664
2026-03-08 0.160353 0.512823 1.472894 4.136552 11.054776 27.496974 68.290903
2026-03-15 0.144262 0.480419 1.428582 4.143580 11.401388 29.099885 74.071196
2026-03-22 0.142333 0.490562 1.502235 4.477334 12.625792 32.929722 85.563155
2026-03-29 0.131832 0.471608 1.490773 4.575288 13.246763 35.360011 93.923827
2026-04-05 0.123115 0.456606 1.488274 4.698309 13.951764 38.078602 103.296760
2026-04-12 0.112291 0.432143 1.453321 4.721656 14.386284 40.158398 111.281947